Study of Regression Techniques on the Risk Modeling in Highway Projects Using Fault Tree Analysis & Recommendations for Rectification

Paper ID: EIJTEM_2015_2_3_61-66

Author's Name: S. Janani

Volume: 2

Issue: 3

Year: 2015

Page No: 61-66

Abstract:

Managing risks in construction projects has been recognized as a very important management process in order to achieve the project objectives in terms of time, cost, quality, safety and environmental sustainability. However, until now most research has focused on some aspects of construction risk management rather than using a systematic and holistic approach to identify risks and analyze the probability of occurrence and impact of these risks. Indian highway construction projects are associated with different levels of risks.The main aim of this paper is to identify the most significant risk factors affecting highway construction project in Kerala & to decrease the probability and impact of those risks. The research method starts with extensive literature review to provide a prime risk factors list which was also augmented to expertise to reach final risk factor list which contains all risks that may be faced during highway construction. Subsequently, a set of 6 risk groups consisting of 60 risks was selected and a questionnaire survey was conducted to determine the likelihood and consequences of the identified risks. Later with the help of 2 indices, probability index and severity index ranking of factors has been done. The statistical analysis for the data is done using SPSS. By using Fault Tree method the risks has been analyzed and remedial measures are taken. This analysis method is mainly used to understand how systems can fail, to identify the best ways to reduce risk. Risk assessment and analysis can help in suggesting a practical approach to identify the level of criticality of any risk event in construction domain. Results indicated that the root cause which is the ‘design variation’ was found the reason for the system failure. This risk can be avoided through proper planning, scheduling, improving quality of the work, labour training and most importantly through avoiding variations in design of the project once it is commenced for execution.

Keywords: Fault Tree Analysis, Highway Projects, Risk Analysis, Statistical Analysis

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